Property | 30 July 2024

Coutts London Prime Property Index Q2 2024 – Prices rebound as demand strengthens

Falling inflation and the potential for lower rates brought buyers back to market, pushing prime prices higher and increasing demand in key areas. 

Key stats

3.4%

The rise in prime London prices last quarter.

 

12%

The increase in deals under offer compared to last quarter.

 

7.7%

The average discount buyers are achieving in prime London. 

 

PROPERTY PRICES RISE

Katherine O’Shea, Director of the Coutts Real Estate Investment Team, says, “Though the market has struggled to recapture its peak reached in 2014, there has been some price growth since the pandemic, and across prime London prices are now just 6.2% below the height of the market.

“In the last quarter prime London prices increased 3.4%, bringing them back to where they were a year ago – prices are now just 0.6% down on Q2 2023.” 

DISCOUNTS STILL COUNTING

“Buyers are still negotiating big discounts but that is starting to come down, suggesting there is more competition coming into the market,” says Katherine.

“The average discount buyers are negotiating across prime London is now 7.7%, down from 9.2% at the end of last year. In the latest quarter, 40.4% of sales had seen their published asking price reduced and 75% of sales were sold at a discount.”

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Stock is rising

Katherine says stock levels are improving, although that’s not the case across all postcodes. “On average across prime London markets, new listings are up 21% and properties available on the open market are up 7% annually,” she says.

Super prime performance

The super prime market has continued to perform well. Katherine comments, “Transaction volumes across London for properties worth £10m and above are up 30% compared to last year, with Kensington, Notting Hill and Holland Park dominating in super prime activity – 47% of all super prime sales were in this area.”

HOW WE HELP CLIENTS WITH SUPER PRIME PROPERTY PURCHASES

SALES VOLUME INCREASES

“Q2 sales volumes have improved too,” Katherine explains. “We’ve seen sales jump up 27.2% on last quarter. That’s still pretty flat compared to a year ago – up just 0.7%. However, we believe factors such as the drop in inflation and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year could lead to more sales activity.”

DEALS BEING DONE

“Across prime London markets there are currently 896 deals under offer. That’s 12% up on the previous quarter,” says Katherine. “It’s a significant rise, suggesting there’s likely to be stronger transactional activity in Q3.”

A BETTER ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

“Now that macro-economic conditions have stabilised, inflation is under control and now we are expecting the first rate cut in four years, investor sentiment is expected to be a lot stronger than in 2023,” explains Katherine.

“We’ve already seen increased demand from those who wanted to move in 2023 but held back due to rising inflation and rising interest rates – now they’ve seen through that, they are coming back to the market.” 

INTEREST RATES AND MORTGAGES – WHICH ONE COULD BE RIGHT FOR YOU?

London still globally attractive

Though there might have been uncertainty around a change in government in the UK and what it could mean for the property market, the reality is a Labour landslide was expected and priced-in by markets.

Globally though, there are still variables of political uncertainty elsewhere and we expect the focus will now shift almost entirely to the US presidential election later this year. Indeed, the uncertainty in the US could even bolster London’s appeal and ‘safe-haven’ status.

Potential tax changes and how they could affect the property market

Changes to non-dom status and Stamp Duty

For buyers, sellers and owners of prime London property, the most relevant points in the government’s manifesto are proposals for the abolition of the non-UK domicile (‘non-dom’) scheme and for an increase in stamp duty land tax (SDLT) for non-residents buying UK property.

“The abolition of the non-dom regime would result in wholesale changes to income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax for those previously holding non-dom status,” says Irene Wolstenholme, Director, Wealth Structuring, Coutts.

“The government have said they would close further non-dom tax loopholes and end the use of offshore trusts, so that everyone who makes their home here in the UK pays their taxes here. Inheritance tax is still set to apply to UK property. Those currently holding resident non-dom status may also be impacted by the potential application of inheritance tax on their non-UK assets.”

Irene adds, “In their manifesto, the government also proposed a 1% increase in the current non-resident SDLT surcharge, taking it to 3%, and the top rate of SDLT to 18% for non-residents.”

If clients think they may be affected by the potential changes to non-dom taxation, they should speak to their tax advisor.

Prime reasons for international buyers to stay

The top end of the market continues to be driven by international buyers and we are monitoring how any changes to the UK non-dom status could affect the prime property sector.

London property continues to be regarded highly by international buyers, and many non-doms with families in the UK will continue to view London as their home. There are potential good deals to be had too. For example, the weakness in sterling, in conjunction with the fall in values since the market peaked in 2014, means dollar buyers in certain parts of the capital are managing to secure a 44% discount on 2014 prices.

HOW WE HELPED SETTLE A CLIENT FAMILY IN LONDON

Local Insights 

Certain markets are extremely competitive, and this is reflected in price growth and time on the market. For example:

  • Prices in Bayswater & Maida Vale have reached new peak levels with average price per square foot in the area now at £1,523.
  • Property is selling faster in St John’s Wood, Regent’s Park & Primrose Hill compared to any other area covered in our index (132 days on average vs 166 days across prime London). Prices here are now just 0.1% below peak levels.

Although stock levels are improving across London, there appears to be a distinct lack of stock for buyers in certain areas. For example:

  • In Battersea, Clapham & Wandsworth new listings are down 13%, and properties available for sale on the open market are down 22% annually.
  • In King’s Cross & Islington new listings are down 18%, and properties available for sale on the open market are down 31% annually.

King’s Cross & Islington saw prices hit a new peak in the first quarter of the year, on average, reaching £1,278 per square foot. However, in the latest quarter, prices have corrected significantly and are now on average below £1,000 per square foot (£966). Prices are now down -8.2% on last year and 100% of properties in this area sold this quarter were sold at a discount to the asking price, suggesting pricing has started to normalise again.

Mayfair & St James’s has seen average prices drop below £2,000 per square foot for the last three consecutive quarters, revealing significant value in this area. Before this, Q2 2017 was the last time we saw average prices in this area below £2,000 per square foot. On average, prices here are 19.8% below peak prices.

There’s relative value in other prime central locations too. Prices in Knightsbridge & Belgravia are 18.5% below peak levels and prices in South Kensington are 16.7% below peak levels.

HOW OUR BESPOKE LOAN GREW A FAMILY’S PROPERTY PORTFOLIO

  • Property prices rise

    Katherine O’Shea, Director of the Coutts Real Estate Investment Team, says, “Though the market has struggled to recapture its peak reached in 2014, there has been some price growth since the pandemic, and across prime London prices are now just 6.2% below the height of the market.

    “In the last quarter prime London prices increased 3.4%, bringing them back to where they were a year ago – prices are now just 0.6% down on Q2 2023.”

  • Discounts still counting

    “Buyers are still negotiating big discounts but that is starting to come down, suggesting there is more competition coming into the market,” says Katherine.

    “The average discount buyers are negotiating across prime London is now 7.7%, down from 9.2% at the end of last year. In the latest quarter, 40.4% of sales had seen their published asking price reduced and 75% of sales were sold at a discount.”

    SLASHING ENERGY COSTS WITH A GREEN RETROFIT MORTGAGE

  • Stock is rising

    Katherine says stock levels are improving, although that’s not the case across all postcodes. “On average across prime London markets, new listings are up 21% and properties available on the open market are up 7% annually,” she says.

  • Super prime performance

    The super prime market has continued to perform well. Katherine comments, “Transaction volumes across London for properties worth £10m and above are up 30% compared to last year, with Kensington, Notting Hill & Holland Park dominating in super prime activity – 47% of all super prime sales were in this area.”

    HOW WE HELP CLIENTS WITH SUPER PRIME PROPERTY PURCHASES

  • Sales volume increases

    “Q2 sales volumes have improved too,” Katherine explains. “We’ve seen sales jump up 27.2% on last quarter. That’s still pretty flat compared to a year ago – up just 0.7%. However, we believe factors such as the drop in inflation and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year could lead to more sales activity.”

  • Deals being done

    “Across prime London markets there are currently 896 deals under offer. That’s 12% up on the previous quarter,” says Katherine. “It’s a significant rise, suggesting there’s likely to be stronger transactional activity in Q3.”

  • A better economic outlook

    “Now that macro-economic conditions have stabilised, inflation is under control and now we are expecting the first rate cut in four years, investor sentiment is expected to be a lot stronger than in 2023,” explains Katherine

    “We’ve already seen increased demand from those who wanted to move in 2023 but held back due to rising inflation and rising interest rates – now they’ve seen through that, they are coming back to the market.” 

    INTEREST RATES AND MORTGAGES – WHICH ONE COULD BE RIGHT FOR YOU?

  • London still globally attractive

    Though there might have been uncertainty around a change in government in the UK and what it could mean for the property market, the reality is a Labour landslide was expected and priced-in by markets.

    Globally though, there are still variables of political uncertainty elsewhere and we expect the focus will now shift almost entirely to the US presidential election later this year. Indeed, the uncertainty in the US could even bolster London’s appeal and ‘safe-haven’ status.

  • Potential tax changes and how they could affect the property market

    Changes to non-dom status and Stamp Duty

    For buyers, sellers and owners of prime London property, the most relevant points in the government’s manifesto are proposals for the abolition of the non-UK domicile (‘non-dom’) scheme and for an increase in stamp duty land tax (SDLT) for non-residents buying UK property.

    “The abolition of the non-dom regime would result in wholesale changes to income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax for those previously holding non-dom status,” says Irene Wolstenholme, Director, Wealth Structuring, Coutts.

    “The government have said they would close further non-dom tax loopholes and end the use of offshore trusts, so that everyone who makes their home here in the UK pays their taxes here. Inheritance tax is still set to apply to UK property. Those currently holding resident non-dom status may also be impacted by the potential application of inheritance tax on their non-UK assets.”

    Irene adds, “In their manifesto, the government also proposed a 1% increase in the current non-resident SDLT surcharge, taking it to 3%, and the top rate of SDLT to 18% for non-residents.”

    If clients think they may be affected by the potential changes to non-dom taxation, they should speak to their tax advisor.

  • Prime reasons for international buyers to stay

    The top end of the market continues to be driven by international buyers and we are monitoring how any changes to the UK non-dom status could affect the prime property sector.

    London property continues to be regarded highly by international buyers, and many non-doms with families in the UK will continue to view London as their home. There are potential good deals to be had too. For example, the weakness in sterling, in conjunction with the fall in values since the market peaked in 2014, means dollar buyers in certain parts of the capital are managing to secure a 44% discount on 2014 prices.

    HOW WE HELPED SETTLE A CLIENT FAMILY IN LONDON

  • Local Insights

    Certain markets are extremely competitive, and this is reflected in price growth and time on the market. For example:

    • Prices in Bayswater & Maida Vale have reached new peak levels with average price per square foot in the area now at £1,523.
    • Property is selling faster in St John’s Wood, Regent’s Park & Primrose Hill compared to any other area covered in our index (132 days on average vs 166 days across prime London). Prices here are now just 0.1% below peak levels.

    Although stock levels are improving across London, there appears to be a distinct lack of stock for buyers in certain areas. For example:

    • In Battersea, Clapham & Wandsworth new listings are down 13%, and properties available for sale on the open market are down 22% annually.
    • In King’s Cross & Islington new listings are down 18%, and properties available for sale on the open market are down 31% annually.

    King’s Cross & Islington saw prices hit a new peak in the first quarter of the year, on average, reaching £1,278 per square foot. However, in the latest quarter, prices have corrected significantly and are now on average below £1,000 per square foot (£966). Prices are now down -8.2% on last year and 100% of properties in this area sold this quarter were sold at a discount to the asking price, suggesting pricing has started to normalise again.

    Mayfair & St James’s has seen average prices drop below £2,000 per square foot for the last three consecutive quarters, revealing significant value in this area. Before this, Q2 2017 was the last time we saw average prices in this area below £2,000 per square foot. On average, prices here are 19.8% below peak prices.

    There’s relative value in other prime central locations too. Prices in Knightsbridge & Belgravia are 18.5% below peak levels and prices in South Kensington are 16.7% below peak levels.

    HOW OUR BESPOKE LOAN GREW A FAMILY’S PROPERTY PORTFOLIO

Pick a postcode: Area-by-area breakdown

Pick a postcode: Area-by-area breakdown

  • SW11, SW4, SW18

    battersea, clapham & wandsworth

    There appears to be a distinct lack of stock for buyers in this area, with new listings down 13%, and properties available for sale on the open market down 22% annually.

    17.8%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -3.3%

    Average Discount

    5.5%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £773 -1.2% 163 41.0% -4.4% 122 3.4%
    £1m - £10m £925 9.3% 169 28.3% -3.3% 53 17.8%
    £10m+ - - - - - - -
    Source: lonres

  • W2, W9

    bayswater & maida vale

    Prices here have reached new peak levels with average price per square foot in the area now at £1,523.

    -23.3%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -8.6%

    Average Discount

    4.2%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £1020 2.8% 206 55.2%
    		 -9.6% 58 -7.9%
    £1m - £10m £1,523 10.4% 206 47.8% -8.6% 46 -23.3%
    £10m+ £2,213 - 259 50% -5.0% 2 200.0%
    Source: lonres

  • SW3, SW10

    chelsea

    Property prices in Chelsea are cheap relative to historic prices. Prime property prices are still 11.7% below the height of the market.

    -19.0%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -7.4%

    Average Discount

    3.9%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £1,164 -3.0% 183 63.2% -8.7% 57 29.5%
    £1m - £10m £1,710 -0.9% 165 40.7% -7.4% 81 -19.0%
    £10m+ £1,795 -20.7% 262 100% -41.4% 2 -60.0%
    Source: lonres

  • SW6, SW5

    fulham & earl's court

    Property prices here are still 11.3% below the height of the market. This area saw strong activity this quarter with sales volumes up 26.5% in the last year.

    26.5%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -7.2%

    Average Discount

    4.9%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £931 -2.0% 171 50.0% -7.7% 62 -13.9%
    £1m - £10m £1,092 -2.1% 162 40.7% -7.2% 86 26.5%
    £10m+ - - - - - - -
    Source: lonres

  • W4, W6

    Hammersmith & Chiswick

    Only 52% of property in this area was sold at a discount to asking price, compared to 75% on average across prime London markets.

    3.3%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -4.9%

    Average Discount

    5.0%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £784 4.8% 174 40.6% -6.3% 32 10.3%
    £1m - £10m £928 1.3% 170 22.6% -4.9% 31 3.3%
    £10m+ - - - - - - -
    Source: lonres

  • NW3, N2, N6

    Hampstead & HIGHGATE

    Market activity here is strong, with transaction volumes up 39% year-on-year. New listings are also up 37%, boosting activity in the area.

    39.0%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -6.3%

    Average Discount

    3.7%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £937 0.8% 145 25.0% -4.7% 40 90.5%
    £1m - £10m £1,273 -4.3% 147 31.6% -6.3% 57 39.0%
    £10m+ - - 256 0.0% -20.4% 2 200%
    Source: lonres

  • W8, W11, W14

    Kensington, Notting Hill & Holland Park

    Ten super prime properties were sold here this quarter, making it the most active market for super prime activity.

    5.6%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -7.7%

    Average Discount

    3.8%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q4 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £1,089 10.8% 195 49.1% -7.0% 55 52.8%
    £1m - £10m £1,590 -1.6% 163 45.7% -7.7% 94 5.6%
    £10m+ £2,576 -14.0% 136 60.0% -14.1% 10 233.0%
    Source: lonres

  • N1, N5, N7

    King’s Cross & Islington

    Prices have come off quite a bit this quarter following record-level average pricing at the start of the year. Prices are now down -8.2% on last year. 100% of properties sold this quarter were sold at a discount to the asking price.

    -61.1%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -7.4%

    Average Discount

    5.3%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £857 0.2% 180 31.3% -2.3% 16 -11.1%
    £1m - £10m £966 -8.2% 172 57.1% -7.4% 7 -61.1%
    £10m+ - - - - - - -
    Source: lonres

  • SW1W, SW1X

    Knightsbridge & Belgravia

    Prices here are still 18.5% below the height of the market, offering buyers incredible value for money relative to historic prices.

    28.1%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -10.1%

    Average Discount

    3.6%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £1,488 41.7% 157 20.0% -5.6% 10 100.0%
    £1m - £10m £1,929 -4.7% 163 41.5% -10.1% 41 28.1%
    £10m+ £2,433 -16.9% 112 33.3% -25.0% 3 0.0%
    Source: lonres

  • WC1, WC2, W1C, W1H, W1U, W1G, W1D, W1B, W1F, W1T, W1W

    Marylebone, Fitzrovia & Soho

    85% of properties here are sold at a discount to asking price with buyers on average negotiating 11.4% off asking price.

    -19.0%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -11.4%

    Average Discount

    4.2%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £1,234 -6.0% 234 69.2% -10.3% 26 -10.3%
    £1m - £10m £1,654 -4.1% 170 57.4% -11.4% 47 -19.0%
    £10m+ - - 36 0.0% - 1 0.0%
    Source: lonres

  • SW1A, SW1Y, W1J, W1K, W1S

    Mayfair & St James’s

    Prices here are still 19.8% below the height of the market with buyers also negotiating the biggest discounts – 11.4% on average.

    -10.7%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -11.4%

    Average Discount

    3.6%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £1,758 10.9% 237 33.3% -9.5% 3 -25.0%
    £1m - £10m £1,956 -12.1% 249 40.0% -11.4% 25 -10.7%
    £10m+ - - 328 66.7% - 3 0.0%
    Source: lonres

  • SW1P, SW1V, SW1H, SW1E

    Pimlico, Westminster & Victoria

    Prices here are down 2.7% annually, meaning values in this area are still 14.0% below the height of the market.

    -7.1%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -10.2%

    Average Discount

    4.9%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price  Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £1,044 2.7% 194 55.2% -8.6% 29 -38.3%
    £1m - £10m £1,189 2.7% 165 50.0% -10.2% 26 -7.1%
    £10m+ - - - - - - 0.0%
    Source: lonres

  • SW7

    South Kensington

    92% of properties here are sold at a discount, with buyers on average negotiating 11.3% off the asking price.

    2.0%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -11.3%

    Average Discount

    3.9%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £1,171 -13.6% 204 81.3% -13.5% 16 166.7%
    £1m - £10m £1,652 2.1% 199 54.0% -11.3% 50 2.0%
    £10m+ - - - - - 0 -100.0%
    Source: lonres

  • NW8, NW1, NW1W

    St John’s Wood, Regent’s Park & Primrose Hill

    Prime property here is just 0.1% below peak levels and the fastest selling – with deals completing in just 132 days on average.

    -8.7%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -5.9%

    Average Discount

    4.0%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £933 -6.7% 175 56.8% -8.6% 44 83.3%
    £1m - £10m £1,523 12.1% 132 38.1% -5.9% 42 -8.7%
    £10m+ £2,831 29.6% 105 33.3% 0.0% 3 -25.0%
    Source: lonres

  • SW19, SW13, SW15

    Wimbledon, Richmond, Putney & Barnes

    Prices here increased 6.1% in the last quarter and are up 4.1% in the last year. Buyers here are only managing to negotiate meagre discounts – 3.2% on average.

    45.8%

    Annual sales volume growth

    -3.2%

    Average Discount

    4.7%

    Average gross rental yield

    Q2 2024
     
    Sold Property Price band Quarterly Average Sales £/Sq Ft Annual Change in price Time on market before sale (days) % of sold stock reduced in price Average discount for sold stock Quarterly Sales Volumes Annual change in quarterly sales volumes
    <£1m £721 7.3% 161 29.3% -4.3% 58 9.4%
    £1m - £10m £929 4.1% 138 11.4% -3.2% 35 45.8%
    £10m+ - - - - - 0 -
    Source: lonres

OUR PROPERTY INSIGHTS CAN HELP GUIDE YOU FURTHER

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